The Ledger
Every forecast we cover, logged with the exact words, the date and the source. Scored in public when it comes due.
50
days until the five S&P 500 calls are scored on December 31
- Open forecasts
- 16
- Scored so far
- 0
Coming due
S&P 500, end of 2026
Scored in 50 days| Forecaster | Call | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Deutsche Bank | 8,000 | Pending |
| Morgan Stanley | 7,800 | Pending |
| Wells Fargo | 7,800 | Pending |
| JPMorgan | 7,500* | Pending |
| HSBC | 7,500 | Pending |
* JPMorgan added 8,000 or more if the Fed cut rates faster. We score the 7,500 base call. Calls made in late 2025, Yahoo Finance, Dec 1, 2025.
Orbit and compute
4 open| Forecast | Due | Status |
|---|---|---|
| SpaceX AI satellites reach orbitElon Musk says SpaceX and Nvidia designed a system “for launch to orbit in Q4 next year.” Said Aug 2026. Light Reading | Dec 31, 2027 | Pending |
| Orbital data centers at scaleMusk expects “significant scale in 2028.” We'll score it against what SpaceX reports as deployed. Light Reading | Dec 31, 2028 | Pending |
| Orbital compute stays costlier than EarthGoogle's Project Suncatcher lead says it won't be cheaper for at least five years. Said Oct 2026. NPR | Oct 2031 | Pending |
| Alphabet spends $195B to $205B in 2026Alphabet's capital spending guidance for the year, raised in July from $180B to $190B. W.Media | Full-year results, early 2027 | Pending |
Autonomy and robots
4 open| Forecast | Due | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Waymo passes 1 million paid rides a weekCo-CEO Tekedra Mawakana says Waymo will pass 1 million paid robotaxi rides a week in the US by the end of 2026. It was at about 400,000 then. Said Feb 11, 2026. Bloomberg | Dec 31, 2026 | Pending |
| More than 50,000 humanoid robots ship in 2026Counterpoint Research's forecast for the full year, after more than 22,000 in the first half. Said Aug 2026. Counterpoint | Full-year counts, early 2027 | Pending |
| About 60,000 humanoid robots ship in 2026Smart Analytics Global's forecast for the full year, after about 19,100 in the first half. Said Aug 2026. Next Move Strategy Consulting | Full-year counts, early 2027 | Pending |
| 90,000 humanoid robots ship in 2026Bank of America's forecast for the full year, as reported by Reuters. The highest of the three we track. Next Move Strategy Consulting | Full-year counts, early 2027 | Pending |
Energy, biology and launch
3 open| Forecast | Due | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Three Mile Island Unit 1 restarts in 2027Constellation says it is on track to return the 835 megawatt reactor, now the Crane Clean Energy Center, to the grid in 2027. Its first target was 2028. The restart license is still under review. Said Sep 2026. World Nuclear News | Dec 31, 2027 | Pending |
| Loyal applies for approval of its dog longevity pillLoyal says it expects to finish the last major section of its FDA application and apply for conditional approval in 2027. Said Jan 13, 2026. Business Wire | Dec 31, 2027 | Pending |
| Starship leaves for Mars in the next windowElon Musk gave the 2026 window a slight chance and called the next one more likely. Earth and Mars line up about every 26 months. Said Aug 2025. Wccftech | Window opens around the end of 2028 | Pending |
How we score
The same rules for everyone, including us. We publish the rules before the results.
Number targets
Scored by how far the real number lands from the call on the deadline. Within 2% is a hit. Within 5% is close. Anything further is a miss.
Ranges
A hit if the real number lands inside the range. Otherwise we score it like a number target, from the nearest end of the range.
Dates
On time if it happens by the deadline. Late if it happens after. Missed if it still hasn't happened when we review it.
Yes or no
Right or wrong. If a call is too vague to score, we say so and explain how we read it.
Probabilities
Scored over time for calibration. A forecaster whose 70% calls come true about 70% of the time is well calibrated.
What goes in
Public, specific, dated forecasts from banks, funds, companies, officials and Orrery itself. We log who said it, their exact words, the date, the source and the deadline.
Example: if a bank calls 8,000 and the index closes the year at 7,700, the call is 3.9% off. That's close.
When we're wrong, we say so.
If we log something wrong, we fix it in public and note what changed and when. Our own forecasts go in the Ledger too, scored by the same rules.
Every claim, every score.
Every plan includes the full Ledger, updated each week, with every logged forecast, its source and its status. Members can also play the Ledger League.